Powell Clearly Stated That Another Interest Rate Cut in December Is "Not Set in Stone" Short-Term Tin Prices May Maintain a Fluctuating Trend [SMM Tin Midday Review]

During the midday session on October 30, 2025, the most-traded SHFE tin 2512 contract fluctuated downward, with its price hovering around 285,000 yuan/mt by the midday close, down 0.70% from the previous day. The intraday price movement was relatively narrow, opening at 286,360 yuan/mt, reaching a high of 286,720 yuan/mt, and falling to a low of 283,550 yuan/mt. Market trading was active, with trading volume increasing significantly. Overnight, the LME tin 3M contract settled at $36,105/mt, down $220, or 0.61%, forming a coordinated correction pattern with the SHFE market.

Today's tin price movement was mainly influenced by multiple intertwined factors. Macro front, the US Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, but Powell clearly stated that another rate cut in December is "not a done deal." This hawkish stance dampened market expectations for consecutive rate cuts, leading to a stronger US dollar index and a cooling global risk appetite, which weighed on the US dollar-denominated tin price. Meanwhile, the market awaited the outcome of the upcoming meeting between the Chinese and US heads of state, with the direction of trade relations being a key variable affecting future tin demand expectations.

In the short term, the most-traded SHFE tin contract is expected to hover at highs. Upside resistance is seen in the 287,000-288,000 yuan/mt range, while support lies at 283,000-284,000 yuan/mt. The market's dominant logic still revolves around the "supply hard constraint" and "macro expectation game." Investors need to closely monitor the progress of production resumptions in Myanmar, the substantive results of Sino-US trade negotiations, and further guidance on the US Fed's policy path.